I Analyzed My 50 Best Substack Notes (Again). This Pattern Showed Up in Almost Every Single One.
I've done this analysis before. Each time I do it I find something new. Here's what the data showed this time.
Most writers posting on Notes every day are solving the wrong problem.
They’re trying to write better Notes. More polished hooks. More carefully crafted insights.
More time spent on each one hoping this will be the one that finally brings the subscribers they’ve been waiting for.
And they keep getting the same result: Decent likes, but minimal subscriber growth. That frustration of showing up every day and watching the number barely move.
I know because I was doing the same thing for months.
Then I stopped guessing and started looking at the actual data.
I downloaded my Notes history over the last 90 days, built a spreadsheet, and ran my top fifty performing Notes through AI to find what they actually had in common.
Not what I thought was working. What the data showed was working.
What came back changed how I write Notes every single morning.
My most liked Note ever brought almost zero new subscribers. Here’s what that told me.
A Note I wrote encouraging writers to keep showing up and not quit — one of my most personal and relatable topics — got hundreds of likes. It felt like a win.
It brought almost zero new subscribers.
Meanwhile a less-viral Note about a specific mistake I made early on — something that got a fraction of the engagement — brought dozens of the right readers to my newsletter that week.
That’s not a one-off. It showed up across the data repeatedly.
Likes and subscriber conversions have almost no correlation in my numbers.
Most writers optimize for likes because they’re immediately visible and feel rewarding. It’s a dopamine hit to get those notifications (we’ve all felt it).
But if your goal is consistent Substack growth, the like count on a Note tells you almost nothing useful about whether it’s actually working.
You can spend months getting really good at writing Notes that get liked. And still wonder why your list isn’t growing.
The writers growing fastest on Notes aren’t trying to sound smart.
The Notes that consistently converted subscribers across my data all created the same specific moment.
Most writers are trying to sound smart on Notes.
The writers growing consistently are doing something completely different — they’re trying to make the reader feel seen.
I started calling this the “me too” factor after noticing it in Note after Note.
The reader thinks “I’ve felt that exact way” or “that’s exactly what I’ve been going through.” That recognition (the moment of feeling less alone in something) is what makes someone hit subscribe.
Not because you taught them something. Because you made them feel understood.
It doesn’t require a dramatic story or a big revelation. It just needs to be honest and specific enough that the right reader recognizes themselves in it immediately.
That’s the whole thing.
What worked on Notes eighteen months ago is almost invisible in my data today.
This is the part that surprised me most about running this analysis again.
Eighteen months ago educational Notes were pulling their weight in my data.
Tips, insights, tactical advice — they converted reasonably well back then. Now they’re almost invisible in the high performing numbers.
What’s showing up consistently in the Notes that bring subscribers are the ones that tell a relatable story from my own experience.
The ones where I share an honest revelation about something I figured out the hard way.
And the ones that genuinely open the comment section (inviting readers to share their own writing or thoughts). These types of Notes build community and signal to the algorithm that its something worth paying attention.
Notes is still a relatively new platform and it keeps evolving.
I used to think I had it figured out after the first analysis. But, running the numbers again a year later with different results was humbling — and genuinely useful.
The writers who keep paying attention to what’s actually converting (rather than what worked before) are the ones who keep growing no matter what the platform does next.
That’s why I keep doing this analysis. And why I’ll do it again.
Let me show you how to grow your Substack with Notes (in a simple, sustainable way)
The Notes Growth Workshop is the complete system for writing Notes that actually bring subscribers.
You’ll learn the specific Note types that convert, the daily routine that takes 20 minutes, and the strategy that teaches the algorithm exactly who you are.
Here’s what’s inside:
Stop guessing what to post — the specific Note types that consistently bring subscribers not just likes, with real examples from my own growth to 17,000+ subscribers
Write Notes in 5 minutes or less — so this never becomes another exhausting task competing for your limited time every morning
The “me too” framework — how to write Notes that make the right reader feel seen before they’ve even clicked your profile
A 20-minute daily routine that compounds — because consistency only works if it’s sustainable and doesn’t burn you out in three weeks
What actually converts versus what just gets likes — so you stop wasting time on vanity metrics and start building real momentum every single day
Special Bonus: And this weekend only when you join, you also get my Notes Writing Playbook as a bonus.
It’s 30+ of my best Notes prompts and templates broken down by type, hook, and structure — built around the exact patterns from this analysis. So you always know what to write and why it works. Join below:
Over 300 writers have gone through this system and built real momentum on Notes. Writers who showed up every day with no clear direction — and left with a routine, a system, and a Substack that finally started growing consistently.
Question: When you write Notes are you optimizing for likes or for that “me too” moment? Drop it in the comments — genuinely curious how most writers think about this.
Dear Wes,
Thanks a lot for your perceptive post.
Stay blessed,
Roy